Live REMIT signals, a CCGT-anchored premium score, sized to your book.
Implied £93.64 · N2EX £84.74 · Gap +£8.90
SRMC £101.42 · Wind 2.5 GW · Residual 20.5 GW
2,336 MW unplanned REMIT active
Regime: gas-dominated
5 markets
GB power, TTF, NBP, UKA and EUA. Priced and scored side by side.
60 seconds
REMIT notice to scored signal in your feed.
8 sources
Elexon, EEX, GIE, Open-Meteo and more, reconciled into one stack.
Signal feed
60-second ingest from the ELEXON feed. Impact sized in MW and £/MWh. The same cards you use in the live product.
645 MW offline (of 690 MW normal capacity) · Unplanned · Since 18 Apr 02:18 UTC · Until ~13:50 UTC 18 Apr · BMRS 02:22 UTC
FULLY OFFLINE
Severe coal baseload loss overnight. Residual demand tight at 2.5 GW wind — pushes intraday curves toward the £101.42 SRMC anchor.· ~£3/MWh estimated price impact
583 MW offline (of 832 MW normal capacity) · Unplanned · Since 17 Apr 22:40 UTC · No return posted · Partial trip
70% derated
Major CCGT derate in a gas-dominated regime. Combined with Drax, over 1.2 GW thermal effectively offline at low wind.· ~£3/MWh estimated price impact
230 MW offline (of 920 MW normal capacity) · Planned · 14–22 Apr · Unit at 690 MW nominal · Priced in
25% derated
Planned peaker rotation; the auction stack has largely priced this window.· ~£1/MWh estimated price impact
P&L attribution
Wind, gas, carbon, outages. Each driver sized in pounds, every morning.
18 Apr · 06:00 GMT
Total P&L today
+£420
Physical premium score
+1.8 FIRMING
Regime
Gas-dominated
Book alignment
MIXED
Explained
94%
P&L attribution
| Driver | Impact | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Wind generation | +£540 | Δwind −3.64 GW vs 7d baseline · +1.25 £/MWh |
| Gas prices (TTF) | −£420 | 62% SRMC vs DA · +0.95 £/MWh |
| Carbon (UKA) | +£180 | UKA ref £55/t · EF 0.366 t/MWh · 18% of gas stack |
| REMIT outages | +£380 | 41% system stress · +0.88 £/MWh |
| Residual | −£260 | unexplained after factor decomposition |
| Total | +£420 | — |
Shape, demand, and interconnector are separate drivers in-product.
Morning brief
Published every trading day, personalised to your open positions.
From this…
REMIT · 05:42
ELEXON/BMRS · REMIT/PUB/202604180542 · msg_8f3a2c1e…
ELEXON · LIVE
BMRS/FUELINST · SP=2026-04-18T05:45Z · dataset=PUBLIC…
PVLIVE · SOLAR
sheffield.ac.uk/pvlive · v4/regional/national…
N2EX · DAY-AHEAD
BMRS/MID · N2EXMIDP · settlement_period=12…
EEX · TTF
EEX/NGP · TTF_Front_Apr26 · curve_roll=auto…
ICE · NBP
STQ · NBP_FRONT_M · adj=HHV · stale_ms=840…
METEO · 24H
open-meteo · ECMWF_IFS · hourly=168 · step=1h…
CARBON · 05:30
Ember v2 · EU_CARBON_EUR · fallback=last_good…
YOUR BOOK · 3 OPEN
Supabase/positions · user_id=…f2a9 · asof=06:00…
05:47:03 BMRS/MID batch_close n=46 lag=82ms
05:46:11 REMIT ingest q=3 dedupe=on
05:45:52 OPEN-METEO pull hrs=168 model=IFS
05:44:18 EEX/NGP front_roll TTF_Apr26
05:43:06 SYNC checkpoint rows=412 merge=06:00:02
05:42:19 PVLIVE national gw=1.12 cf=6.5%
05:41:44 STQ/NBP stale_ms=840 adj=HHV
05:40:02 GIE/AGSI eu_pct=38.4 d-1=-0.2%
05:39:17 FRANKFURT GBP/EUR fix=daily
05:38:55 EMBER EUA_EUR oilprice_fallback=off
8 feeds ingested · same ingestion stack as production · brief_run=06:00:00 UTC
To this.
Morning brief · 06:00 GMT
Powered by Meridian
Reliability
Confidence HIGH · published 06:00 GMT · premium context (implied vs N2EX, residual demand) from the 05:55 model run · personalised touchpoints active
Overnight summary
Physical premium model shows a 1.8 normalised score in firming mode, implying £93.64/MWh versus a market price of £84.74/MWh; the £8.90/MWh gap signals the market is undervaluing physical tightness. Wind outturn remains depressed at 2.5 GW with residual demand at 20.5 GW, pushing the system into a gas-dominated regime well above the 15 GW threshold. DRAXX-2 (645 MW coal unit) remains offline through at least 13:50 UTC following an overnight unplanned outage; SUTB-1 is partially tripped, generating at 249 MW of 832 MW nominal with no return time posted, and capacity is degrading across multiple coal and CCGT assets.
Weather watch
Wind is forecast to accelerate into the second half of the 24-hour window, with the range 0.3–7.9 m/s implying movement from very weak early session conditions toward moderate-to-fresh afternoon winds; this should ease residual demand pressure as wind climbs from 2.5 GW toward 5–6 GW by late session. Temperature at 3.7 °C with a 3.4–9.3 °C span through the day is cold enough to support baseline gas heating demand but without extreme stress. The residual demand profile will trail down through the session as renewables step up, reducing the need for rapid ramp-up from thermal fleet in afternoon hours.
The SRMC anchor sits at £101.42/MWh while the market trades £84.74/MWh; if wind acceleration stalls or fails to materialise and multiple thermal units remain stressed (DRAXX-2 through 13:50 UTC, SUTB-1 partially tripped with indefinite return, TSREP-1 unplanned through 23:00 UTC), the system could flip to emergency thermal dependency within hours. The 2,336 MW of modelled REMIT capacity impact is compressed into a period when residual demand is still elevated at 20.5 GW; a wind forecast miss of just 2 m/s (3.6 GW equivalent) would force dispatch into the £95–101 range. Current market pricing assumes wind delivery and capacity recovery; neither is guaranteed this morning.
Watch list
3 items to watchDRAXX-2 derated 645 MW through 13:50 UTC this morning; watch for reinstatement signals; any delay compounds thermal scarcity and pushes SP3–SP10 toward SRMC anchor.
Wind profile front-loaded to weak first half (0.3 m/s initial) means residual demand will spike in early session; check N2EX intraday spreads for morning peak premium before acceleration kicks in.
T_NNGAO-2 rolls through planned deration 07:00–15:00 UTC (50–59 MW units); stacked outage window coincides with early weak wind; ensure ops readiness for rapid load swaps.
Book touchpoints
The long 50 MW GB Power Q3-2026 benefits directly from the £8.90/MWh gap between market and physically-implied price; at 2.5 GW wind and 20.5 GW residual, the SRMC anchor at £101.42 sits £16.68 above the current tape, and any delay to DRAXX-2's return compounds the firming into the morning peak. The short 25,000 therm NBP Winter-2026 at 114.7 carries mark-to-market pressure from the overnight TTF firm; if gas continues to price the thermal stack, this position absorbs cross-commodity beta against the long power. The long 700 tco2 UKA Dec-2026 at 56.8 gains from widening EUA–UKA spread pressures as UKA firms alongside thermal demand. The single biggest risk is the 1,050 MW of active REMIT outages returning to service, which would compress residual demand below 15 GW and collapse the physically-implied premium; monitor REMIT releases and TSO capacity notices between 08:00 and 10:00 UTC.
Personalised to: Long 50 MW GB Power Q3-2026 · Short 25,000 therm NBP Winter-2026 · Long 700 tco2 UKA Dec-2026
Meridian
Every night Meridian scores its physically-implied price predictions against N2EX settlement and updates its own coefficients. No manual tuning, no stale parameters.
Most analytics platforms don't publish their own accuracy. We do.
Days in production
—
Settlement periods scored
—
Every prediction scored against N2EX settlement. Every coefficient update gated on sample size. No hidden benchmarks.
Meridian · live accuracy
Overall MAE
—
Mean absolute error vs settlement
Bias
—
MAE by regime
Calibration governance
Coefficient updates are gated: Meridian only promotes new parameters once regime-specific sample thresholds are met. No untested parameters ever hit production.
Recalibrates nightly at 02:00 UTC against N2EX settlement. MAE and bias update live across the rolling window.
Start on delayed data. Upgrade when you need real time and the full market set.
Free
£0
Physical premium score, morning brief (06:00 GMT), and signal feed with 2h delay. No credit card required.
Start freePro
£39/month
Real-time signals and REMIT alerts, all markets, unlimited portfolio positions.
Get ProTeam
£149/month
Everything in Pro across five seats, plus API access, data export, and team management.
Get TeamNeed more than 5 seats? contact@zephyr.markets